Last updated: September 11, 2026
Chile’s economic momentum has cooled markedly. Real GDP growth year-on-year swung from a peak of 4.06% in Q2 2025 down to -0.33% in Q2 2026, after moving through intermediate readings such as 1.98% in Q3 2025, 1.51% in Q4 2025, and 0.37% in Q1 2026. This deceleration is mirrored in the output gap, expressed as a percentage of potential GDP, which has remained negative, moving from -0.46 in 2025 to -0.9 in 2026 before recovering slightly to -0.51 in 2027, signaling persistent spare capacity in the economy. Labor market conditions have softened concurrently, with the unemployment rate rising from 8.69% in December 2025 to a peak of 9.29% in May 2026, before standing at 9.28% in June 2026.
Price pressures have fluctuated within a moderate band. CPI inflation started at 3.45% in December 2025, dipped to a low of 2.37% in February 2026, and climbed to 4.34% in June 2026 before cooling to 3.53% in July 2026. In response to these economic dynamics, the Central Bank of Chile has held its policy rate steady at 4.5% across all months from January 2026 through August 2026.
Public finances show growing nominal totals alongside persistent deficits. Government revenue expanded from 73,882.15 billion of national currency in 2022 to 92,647.1 billion projected for 2027, while government expenditure grew from 70,303.95 billion of national currency in 2022 to 99,797.98 billion in 2027. The government budget balance (net lending/borrowing as a percentage of GDP, representing the narrower public sector measure) hovered between -3.08% in Q3 2024 and -2.69% in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, the broader measure of total financial liabilities of the general government stood at 44.2% of GDP in Q2 2024 and reached 48.27% of GDP in Q1 2026, diverging from the narrower public sector balance perimeter.
No sector balance data is available for Chile.
On the external front, Chile continues to run a solid trade surplus. Goods exports to the world expanded from 73,484.58 million of national currency in 2020 to 110,362.4 million in 2025. Over the same timeframe, goods imports from the world grew from 59,226.0 million of national currency in 2020 to 92,709.93 million in 2025 (with the 2025 reading recorded at 92,970.93 million of national currency), maintaining export receipts above import outlays.
Energy import dependency is virtually nonexistent: net electricity imports stood at 0.0 billion kWh in 2024, continuing a long-running trend of self-sufficiency that renders this volume immaterial relative to Chile's macroeconomic scale. Global input costs have seen notable volatility, with the Brent crude oil price moving from 61.81 US dollars per barrel in December 2025 to a peak of 103.84 US dollars per barrel in May 2026 before settling at 83.73 US dollars per barrel in July 2026. Simultaneously, the copper price—a vital export commodity for Chile—rose from 11,790.96 US dollars in December 2025 to 13,542.82 US dollars in July 2026, providing robust revenue exposure to commodity price swings.
The currency's movement against the IMF Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket showed a fluctuating path. After starting at 1,321.46 units of currency per 1 SDR in August 2025, the rate fell (indicating a strengthening currency) to 1,219.51 in June 2026, before rising again to 1,277.23 units of currency per 1 SDR in September 2026. This recent weakening trend helps buffer export competitiveness while potentially adding to imported inflation pressures alongside global energy shifts.
Overall, Chile's economy navigates a period of sub-par growth and spare capacity, with a steady monetary policy stance buffering moderate inflation. Resilient copper prices and a healthy trade surplus provide key external buffers, even as broader public liabilities and a softening labor market require close monitoring.
This bulletin is generated with AI assistance from the structured economic data collected across this site (national accounts, sector accounts, trade, energy and currency data). It is intended as an accessible summary, not investment advice — figures may be revised as underlying data sources are updated. For the detailed underlying series, see the Nation Account Data and Economic Data sections in the menu above.