Last updated: September 15, 2026
Chile’s economic pulse has turned decidedly sluggish after a brief post-pandemic recovery. Real GDP growth year-on-year swung from a peak of 4.06% in Q2 2025 down to -0.33% in Q2 2026, marking a notable contraction following earlier positive prints such as 2.88% in Q1 2025 and 1.98% in Q3 2025. This deceleration corresponds with a persistent economic output gap that remains negative at -0.9% of potential GDP in 2026, pointing to ongoing spare capacity in the economy after registering -0.46% in 2025. Labour market conditions reflect this cooling trajectory: the unemployment rate moved from 8.69% in December 2025 to 9.28% in June 2026, touching a high of 9.29% in May 2026.
Price pressures have fluctuated within a moderate band, prompting a steady policy response. CPI inflation stood at 3.45% in December 2025, dipped to a low of 2.37% in February 2026, and climbed to 4.34% in June 2026 before settling back to 3.53% in July 2026. In response to these evolving price dynamics, the Central Bank of Chile maintained a steady hand, holding its central bank policy rate at 4.5% across every month from January 2026 through August 2026.
Public finances show a widening fiscal mismatch as spending outpaces income. Government revenue grew from 73,882.15 billion of national currency in 2022 to 86,290.35 billion of national currency in 2026 (and projected at 92,647.1 billion of national currency in 2027), while government expenditure climbed from 70,303.95 billion of national currency in 2022 to 95,306.19 billion of national currency in 2026 (reaching 99,797.98 billion of national currency in 2027). Consequently, the government budget balance (measured as net lending/borrowing) remained in deficit, moving from -2.97% of GDP in Q2 2024 to -2.69% of GDP in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, debt metrics highlight a divergence across measurement perimeters: official government debt data is not available, but the broader total financial liabilities of the general government stood at 48.27% of GDP in Q1 2026, compared with 44.2% of GDP in Q2 2024.
No sector balance data is available for Chile.
On the external front, Chile continues to run a solid trade surplus with the world. Goods exports to the world expanded from 73,484.58 million of national currency in 2020 to 110,362.4 million of national currency in 2025, outpacing the growth of goods imports from the world over the same timeframe, which moved from 59,226.0 million of national currency in 2020 to 92,970.93 million of national currency in 2025 after touching a low of 84,221.2 million of national currency in 2024.
Energy vulnerability remains minimal. Net electricity imports stood at 0.0 billion kWh in 2024, holding steady at negligible levels since 2018 and rendering foreign supply dependence practically immaterial for an economy of this scale. General input costs faced upward pressure as the Brent crude oil price rose from 61.81 US dollars per barrel in December 2025 to a peak of 103.84 US dollars per barrel in May 2026 before easing to 83.73 US dollars per barrel in July 2026. At the same time, export revenue exposure benefited from robust valuations in Chile's key export commodity, with the copper price climbing from 11,790.96 US dollars in December 2025 to 13,542.82 US dollars in July 2026, peaking at 13,552.04 US dollars in June 2026.
The national currency experienced bouts of volatility against the IMF Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket, moving from 1,321.46 units of currency per 1 SDR in August 2025 to 1,264.24 units of currency per 1 SDR in December 2025, before weakening to 1,277.23 units of currency per 1 SDR by September 2026. This overall weakening trend in the currency has added upward pressure to imported inflation while simultaneously bolstering external trade competitiveness.
Overall, Chile's economy navigates a period of subdued growth, spare capacity, and rising unemployment, even as robust copper prices support strong export revenues and trade surpluses. While fiscal deficits persist and the currency has softened, the Central Bank of Chile has kept its policy rate anchored at 4.5% to manage fluctuating inflation risks.
This bulletin is generated with AI assistance from the structured economic data collected across this site (national accounts, sector accounts, trade, energy and currency data). It is intended as an accessible summary, not investment advice — figures may be revised as underlying data sources are updated. For the detailed underlying series, see the Nation Account Data and Economic Data sections in the menu above.