Last updated: September 15, 2026
Real GDP growth in Estonia moved between 0.14% year-on-year in Q1 2025 and 2.67% year-on-year in Q1 2026, registering 1.77% year-on-year in the latest reading for Q2 2026. The output gap stayed in negative territory across the observed span, moving from -0.08% of potential GDP in 2020 to -4.38% of potential GDP in 2025, and sitting at -2.19% of potential GDP in 2027, indicating that the economy has retained spare capacity rather than running above its potential. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate moved in a band between 6.1% in March 2026 and 6.9% in June 2026 and July 2026.
Price pressures eased over the period, with CPI inflation moving from 4.08% in December 2025 down to 2.18% in July 2026. The European Central Bank policy rate, which sets rates for the whole euro area rather than Estonia alone, held at 2.0% from January 2026 through May 2026 before rising to 2.25% in June 2026, where it remained through August 2026.
Public finances showed a recovering fiscal position alongside moderate indebtedness. Government revenue ranged from 3.58 billions of national currency in Q1 2024 to 5.21 billions of national currency in Q4 2025, while government expenditure moved between 3.98 billions of national currency in Q1 2024 and 5.3 billions of national currency in Q4 2025. The government budget balance, measured as net lending/borrowing percentage of GDP, improved from -3.16% of GDP in Q2 2024 to -0.9% of GDP in Q2 2025. Official government debt stood at 33.88% of GDP in Q1 2026, whereas the broader measure tracking total financial liabilities of the general government reached 42.83% of GDP in Q1 2026, reflecting different measurement perimeters.
No sector balance data is available for Estonia. However, liquid savings buffers and liability tracks show that household deposits moved from 13.26 billions of national currency in Q2 2024 to 15.23 billions of national currency in Q1 2026, while household long-term loans rose from 14.22 billions of national currency in Q2 2024 to 16.39 billions of national currency in Q1 2026.
In foreign trade, Estonia consistently runs a trade deficit as goods imports exceeded goods exports across the last six years, with exports moving from 16,047.72 millions of national currency in 2020 to 20,843.34 millions of national currency in 2025, and imports shifting from 17,251.8 millions of national currency in 2020 to 25,272.62 millions of national currency in 2025.
Energy vulnerabilities stem from both electricity and gas channels. Net electricity imports stood at 2.9 billion kWh in 2024, maintaining a historical pattern of positive net import volumes. Additionally, dry natural gas imports reached 23.33 billion cubic feet in 2024, highlighting gas import dependence. This exposure coincides with rising input costs: the Brent crude oil price moved from 61.81 US dollars per barrel in December 2025 to 83.73 US dollars per barrel in July 2026, after peaking earlier in the year, while the EU natural gas price climbed from 9.46 US dollars in December 2025 to 17.93 US dollars in July 2026, posing specific inflation and energy-security risks.
The currency value against the IMF Special Drawing Right basket moved from 1.19 units of currency per 1 SDR in August 2025 to 1.17 units of currency per 1 SDR in December 2025, and stood at 1.18 units of currency per 1 SDR in September 2026, reflecting a slight overall strengthening trend that helps temper imported inflation while marginally influencing external trade competitiveness.
Overall, Estonia's economy is operating with persistent spare capacity and moderating inflation while managing ongoing trade deficits and external energy dependencies. Fiscal deficits have narrowed as economic growth resumed a positive trajectory through early 2026.
This bulletin is generated with AI assistance from the structured economic data collected across this site (national accounts, sector accounts, trade, energy and currency data). It is intended as an accessible summary, not investment advice — figures may be revised as underlying data sources are updated. For the detailed underlying series, see the Nation Account Data and Economic Data sections in the menu above.