Last updated: September 15, 2026
Lithuania's economic growth showed resilience, with real GDP expanding between 2.17% and 3.97% year-on-year across the quarters spanning Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, registering at 3.8% in the latest reading for Q2 2026. Despite this positive output growth, the output gap remained in negative territory, moving from -1.33% in 2024 to -1.46% in 2025 and projected at -1.78% in 2027, indicating that the economy retains spare capacity rather than overheating. The labor market saw the unemployment rate fluctuate between a low of 6.2% and a high of 7.1% over the recent eight-quarter tracking period, settling at 6.2% in July 2026.
Price pressures remained notable, with CPI inflation recorded at 3.45% in December 2025. Monetary policy is governed by the European Central Bank, which sets rates for the whole euro area, not Lithuania alone. The European Central Bank policy rate held steady at 2.0% from January 2026 through May 2026 before rising to 2.25% in June 2026, where it remained through August 2026.
Public finances reflect persistent fiscal deficits. Government revenue ranged from 6.55 billion of national currency in Q1 2024 to 9.17 billion of national currency in Q4 2025, while government expenditure moved from 6.72 billion of national currency to 10.4 billion of national currency over the same intervals. The government budget balance, measured as net lending/borrowing as a percentage of GDP, stood between -0.92% in Q2 2024 and -1.82% in Q4 2025, registering at -1.69% in Q1 2026. Official government debt stood at 47.61% of GDP in Q1 2026, closely tracking the broader total financial liabilities measure of general government at 47.04% of GDP for the same period, with these two figures reflecting different measurement perimeters.
No sector balance data is available for Lithuania. However, household balance sheet components show that household deposits—representing a liquid savings buffer—grew from 23.63 billion of national currency in Q2 2024 to 28.66 billion of national currency in Q1 2026. Concurrently, household long-term loans, consisting mostly of mortgage-type debt, expanded from 15.99 billion of national currency in Q2 2024 to 20.3 billion of national currency in Q1 2026.
Foreign trade data shows that goods exports to the world moved from 32,713.43 million of national currency in 2020 to a peak of 46,238.23 million of national currency in 2022, before reaching 41,436.92 million of national currency in 2025. Meanwhile, goods imports from the world grew from 33,328.09 million of national currency in 2020 to 55,051.15 million of national currency in 2022, and stood at 48,905.42 million of national currency in 2025, leaving the country running a persistent trade deficit as imports outpaced exports across the entire six-year span.
Energy and input costs present distinct external exposures. Net electricity imports declined from a peak of 9.63 billion kWh in 2018 to 5.4 billion kWh in 2024, a volume that is marginal relative to an economy of this size. Dry natural gas imports ranged between 80.59 billion cubic feet in 2018 and 125.15 billion cubic feet in 2022, registering at 99.58 billion cubic feet in 2024, marking a structural reliance on foreign gas supply. This import dependence is compounded by volatility in the European natural gas price, which climbed from 9.46 US dollars in December 2025 to 17.93 US dollars in July 2026, alongside fluctuations in the Brent crude oil price, which moved from 61.81 US dollars per barrel in December 2025 to a peak of 103.84 US dollars per barrel in May 2026 before easing to 83.73 US dollars per barrel in July 2026.
The currency value against the IMF Special Drawing Right basket moved within a narrow band, recorded at 1.19 units of currency per 1 SDR in August 2025, softening to 1.17 units of currency per 1 SDR by October and December 2025, and returning to 1.19 units of currency per 1 SDR in July 2026 before ending at 1.18 units of currency per 1 SDR in September 2026. This modest weakening exerts mild upward pressure on imported inflation while offering slight support to export competitiveness.
Overall, Lithuania's economy maintains solid output growth and accumulating household liquidity buffers alongside persistent trade deficits and fiscal shortfalls. External energy dependencies and shifting input costs continue to pose underlying risks to price stability as monetary authorities manage borrowing costs.
This bulletin is generated with AI assistance from the structured economic data collected across this site (national accounts, sector accounts, trade, energy and currency data). It is intended as an accessible summary, not investment advice — figures may be revised as underlying data sources are updated. For the detailed underlying series, see the Nation Account Data and Economic Data sections in the menu above.