ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This Annual Report on Form 10-K contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). In particular, statements contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, including but not limited to, statements regarding the sufficiency of our cash, our ability to finance our operations and business initiatives and obtain funding for such activities; our future results of operations and financial position, business strategy and plan prospects, or costs and objectives of management for future initiatives, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements relate to our future plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and may be identified by words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “intends,” ’‘targets,” “projects,” “contemplates,” ’‘believes,” “seeks,” “goals,” “estimates,” ’‘predicts,” ’‘potential” and “continue” or similar words. Readers are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are based on our current beliefs, expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict, including those identified below, under Part I, Item lA. “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Therefore, actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed, projected or implied in any forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements for any reason.
NOTE REGARDING COMPANY REFERENCES
Throughout this Annual Report on Form 10-K, “Adial,” the “Company,” “we,” “us” and “our” refer to Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ii
Item 1. Business
Overview
We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of a therapeutic agent for the treatment of alcohol use disorder (“AUD”) using our lead investigational new drug product, AD04, a selective serotonin-3 antagonist (i.e., a “5-HT3 antagonist”). The active ingredient in AD04 is ondansetron, which is also the active ingredient in Zofran®, an approved drug for treating nausea and emesis. AUD is characterized by an urge to consume alcohol and an inability to control the levels of consumption. We intend to commence a Phase 3 clinical trial using AD04 for the potential treatment of AUD in subjects with certain target genotypes. We believe our approach is unique in that it targets the serotonin system and individualizes the treatment of AUD, through the use of genetic screening. We have created an investigational companion diagnostic biomarker test for the genetic screening of patients with certain biomarkers that, as reported in the American Journal of Psychiatry (Johnson, et. al. 2011 & 2013), we believe will benefit from treatment with AD04. Our strategy is to integrate the pre-treatment genetic screening into AD04’s label to create a patient-specific treatment in one integrated therapeutic offering. Our goal is to develop a genetically targeted, effective and safe product candidate to treat AUD in genotype positive patients that does not require abstinence as part of the treatment.
We have a worldwide, exclusive license from the University of Virginia Patent Foundation (d.b.a the Licensing & Venture Group) (“UVA LVG”), which is the licensing arm of the University of Virginia, to commercialize our investigational drug candidate, AD04, subject to Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) approval of the product, based upon three separate patents and patent application families, with patents issued in over 40 jurisdictions, including three issued patents in the U.S. Our investigational agent has been used in several investigator-sponsored trials and we possess or have rights to use toxicology, pharmacokinetic and other preclinical and clinical data that supports our Phase 3 clinical trial. Our therapeutic agent was the product candidate used in a University of Virginia investigator sponsored Phase 2b clinical trial of 283 patients. In this Phase 2b clinical trial, ultra-low dose ondansetron, the active pharmaceutical agent in AD04, showed a statistically significant difference between ondansetron and placebo for both the primary endpoint and secondary endpoint, which were reduction in severity of drinking measured in drinks per drinking day (1.71 drinks/drinking day; p=0.0042), and reduction in frequency of drinking measured in days of abstinence/no drinking (11.56%; p=0.0352), respectively. Additionally, and importantly, the Phase 2b results showed a significant decrease in the percentage of heavy drinking days (11.08%; p=0.0445) with a “heavy drinking day” defined as a day with four (4) or more alcoholic drinks for women or five (5) or more alcoholic drinks for men consumed in the same day.
The active pharmaceutical agent in AD04, our lead investigational new drug product, is ondansetron (the active ingredient in Zofran®), which was granted FDA approval in 1991 for nausea and vomiting post-operatively and after chemotherapy or radiation treatment and is now commercially available in generic form. In studies of Zofran® conducted as part of its FDA review process, ondansetron was given acutely at dosages up to almost 100 times the dosage expected to be formulated in AD04 with the highest doses of Zofran® given intravenously (“i.v.”), which results in approximately 160% the exposure level as oral dosing. Even at high doses given i.v. the studies found that ondansetron is well-tolerated and results in few adverse side effects at the currently marketed doses, which reach more than 80 times the exposure levels of the AD04 dose and are given i.v. The formulation dosage of ondansetron used in our drug candidate (and expected to be used by us in our Phase 3 clinical trials) has the potential advantage that it contains a much lower concentration of ondansetron than the generic formulation/dosage that has been used in prior clinical trials, is dosed orally, and is available with use of a companion diagnostic biomarker. Our development plan for AD04 is designed to demonstrate both the efficacy of AD04 in the genetically targeted population and the safety of ondansetron when administered chronically at the AD04 dosage. However, to the best of our knowledge, no comprehensive clinical study has been performed to date that has evaluated the safety profile of ondansetron at any dosage for long-term use (6 months or greater) at any dosage as anticipated in our Phase 3 clinical trial.
According to the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (the “NIAAA”) and the Journal of the American Medical Association (“JAMA”), in the United States alone, approximately 35 million people each year have AUD (such number is based upon the 2012 data provided in Grant et. al. the JAMA 2015 publication and has been adjusted to reflect a compound annual growth rate of 1.13%, which is the growth rate reported by U.S. Census Bureau for the general adult population from 2012-2017), resulting in significant health, social and financial costs with excessive alcohol use being the third leading cause of preventable death and is responsible for 31% of driving fatalities in the United States (NIAAA Alcohol Facts & Statistics). AUD contributes to over 200 different diseases and 10% of children live with a person that has an alcohol problem. According to the American Society of Clinical Oncologists, 5-6% of new cancers and cancer deaths globally are directly attributable to alcohol. The Centers for Disease Control (the “CDC”) has reported that AUD costs the U.S. economy about $250 billion annually, with heavy drinking accounting for greater than 75% of the social and health related costs. Despite this, according to the article in the JAMA 2015 publication, only 7.7% of patients (i.e., approximately 2.7 million people) with AUD are estimated to have been treated in any way and only 3.6% by a physician (i.e., approximately 1.3 million people). In addition, according to the JAMA 2017 publication, the problem in the United States appears to be growing with almost a 50% increase in AUD prevalence between 2002 and 2013.
AUD is characterized by an urge to consume alcohol and an inability to control the levels of consumption. Until the publication of the fifth revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders in 2013 (the “DSM-5”), AUD was broken into “alcohol dependence” and “alcohol abuse”. More broadly, overdrinking due to the inability to moderate drinking is called alcohol addiction and is often called “alcoholism”, sometimes pejoratively.
Since ondansetron is already manufactured for generic sale, the active ingredient for AD04 is readily available from several manufacturers, and we have contracted with a U.S. manufacturer to acquire ondansetron at a cost expected to be under $0.01 per dose. Clinical trial material (“CTM”) has already been manufactured for the initial Phase 3 trial. The CTM has demonstrated good stability after four years with the stability studies to date. We have entered into a Secrecy and Supply Agreement on December 1, 2011 with Cambrex Charles City, Inc. (“Cambrex”) for the supply of the active ingredient for AD04. The agreement has an initial term of eight (8) years and may be terminated by either party upon a material breach that is not cured within sixty (60) days of receipt of written notice or certain bankruptcy events. Cambrex has the right to terminate the agreement if we do not cure a payment failure within thirty (30) days of notice thereof and we have the right to terminate the agreement if a regulatory authority prohibits or restricts manufacture and sale of the active ingredient in a way that would have an adverse effect on the sale price or volume of the product. Pursuant to the terms of the agreement with Cambrex, Cambrex cannot decline a purchase order of 50kg of product or less and we are required to purchase 66.67% of our requirements of the active ingredient sold in the United States and the European Union from Cambrex for a period of five (5) years from submission of our NDA.
We have also developed the manufacturing process at a third-party vendor to produce tablets at what we expect will serve for commercial scale production, also at a cost expected to be less than $0.01 per dose. A proprietary packaging process has been developed, which appears to extend the stability of the drug product. Packaging costs are expected to be less than $0.05 per dose. We do not have a written commitment for supply of either the tablets or the packaging and believe that alternative suppliers are available to whom we can transfer the processes that have been developed.
Methods for the companion diagnostic genetic test have been developed as a blood test, and we established the test with a U.S. third-party vendor capable of supporting a Phase 3 clinical trial. Additionally, we have built validation and possible approval of the companion diagnostic into the Phase 3 program, including that we plan to store blood samples for all patients in the event additional genetic testing is required by regulatory authorities. Methods are intended to be transferred to third-party vendors in Europe for conduct of the planned initial Phase 3 trial.
Ultimately, we plan to explore the development of AD04 in other addiction-related indications (e.g., opioid use disorder, other drug addictions, obesity, smoking cessation, eating disorders and anxiety) and to build out our product portfolio with the intent that product portfolio expansions will be focused on promising addiction therapies. Our vision is to create the world’s leading addiction related pharmaceutical company.
Disease Targets and Markets
Limitations of Current AUD Therapies
Today the most common treatments for AUD are directed at achieving abstinence and typical treatments include psychological and social interventions. Most therapies actually require abstinence prior to initiating therapy. Abstinence requires dramatic lifestyle changes often with serious work and social consequences. Frequently, patients cannot attend family and social events in order to ensure compliance with abstinence, and patients often must suffer from the stigma of having been labelled an alcoholic. Significant side effects of current pharmacologic therapies include mental side effects such as psychiatric disorders and depressive symptoms and physical side effects such as nausea, dizziness, vomiting, abdominal pain, arthritis and joint fitness. In fact, according to peer reviewed studies referenced in The Sober Truth: Debunking the Bad Science Behind 12-Step Programs and the Rehab Industry, L. Dodes and Z. Dodes, 2014 by Dr. Lance Dodes, the former Director of the substance abuse treatment unit of Harvard’s McLean Hospital, 90% or more of patients that use current therapy solutions, such as Alcoholics Anonymous, do not achieve long-term abstinence.
There are four drugs approved by the FDA and marketed in the United States for the treatment of alcohol addiction, Antabuse® (disulfram) Vivitrol® (naltrexone), Revia® (naltrexone) and Campral® (acomprosate) and one drug, Selincro® (nalmefene) is marketed outside of the United States. All of the approved drugs, other than Selincro®, require abstinence prior to commencing treatment with the drug, and all five drugs are known to have significant side effects.
Antabuse® was approved for the treatment of alcohol dependence more than 50 years ago, making it the oldest such drug on the market. It works by interfering with the body’s ability to process alcohol. Its method of action and purpose is to cause patients that drink alcohol while taking Antabuse® to experience numerous and extremely unpleasant adverse effects, including, among others, flushing, nausea, and palpitations, with the goal that patients will continue the medication but refrain from drinking in order to avoid these effects.
Naltrexone, which can be taken as a once-daily pill (Revia®) or in an approved once-monthly injectable form (Vivitrol®) that requires a doctor to administer is often associated with gastrointestinal complaints and has been reported to cause liver damage when given at certain high doses. As a result, it carries an FDA boxed warning, a special emphasized warning, for this side effect.
Campral®, taken by mouth three times daily, acts on chemical messenger systems in the brain.
Selincro® has not been approved for sale in the United States.
Our Proposed Solution
Our goal with AD04 is to develop an effective and safe product to treat AUD that does not require abstinence as part of the treatment and does not have the negative side effects of the current drugs on the market. Our product candidate, AD04, is designed for genotype positive patients who desire to control their drinking but cannot or do not want to completely abstain from drinking. By removing the difficulties associated with abstinence and the side effects associated with the other current products on the market, we believe that we may be able to remove barriers to patient adoption that inhibit adoption of current therapies and can attract a greater portion of the many millions of patients with AUD that remain untreated. Unlike other therapies, our investigational product, AD04, uses a novel mode of action for treating AUD that involves genetic screening with a companion diagnostic genetic test prior to treatment and is designed to reduce cravings for alcohol to effectively curb alcohol intake, without the requirement of abstinence prior to or during treatment. Our product candidate is intended to be easy to use since it is administered orally, currently on a twice daily basis and with a once-a-day tablet planned as part of the product’s life cycle management. To date, clinical testing of AD04 has shown it to have a positive safety and tolerability profile with side effects similar to placebo.
The companion diagnostic genetic test to be used to identify patients that are most likely to benefit from treatment with AD04 may potentially enhance the likelihood of a successful outcome for those undergoing treatment. Additionally, it may provide doctors with the opportunity to have a non-threatening conversation about alcohol with their patients and may provide the patient an acceptable path to help them determine if they might be a candidate for help with their alcohol use. If the test results are positive, they would have a science based rationale for their treatment, which reduces some of the stigma patients might otherwise endure, and allows them to be treated in the confidence of their doctor, potentially with a simple, oral tablet.
Strengths and Competitive Advantages
Large Market Opportunity for an Effective Solution
In the United States alone, approximately 35 million people each year have AUD. Based on data from the Phase 2b trial of AD04 and our analysis of publicly available genetic databases, we preliminarily estimate that about one in three patients with AUD in the U.S. will have the genetic markers to indicate possible treatment with AD04. At this time, we are not aware of any oral pharmaceutical treatment approved in the U.S. that addresses the needs of patients who desire to control their drinking but cannot or do not want to abstain from drinking. The current abstinence-based treatments have limitations. The limited side effects expected for our investigational new drug, based on clinical data so far, are also believed to be an important factor in the expected rapid uptake of AD04 in the market. Our approach, if approved by FDA, may allow for social drinking to continue and is aimed at reducing the dangerous, heavy drinking. This would allow patients to live the life they want without the stigma associated with complete abstention and currently endured by those seeking help for their excessive drinking. Assuming that one-third of AUD patients are genotype positive for treatment with AD04 and a $235 price for a one month supply of the drug (assumed pricing based on an average of prices published by Blue Cross Blue Shield in June 2017 for tier-3 oral, on-patent, chronic maintenance drugs, discounted by 16.6%, to reflect the average difference between retail and wholesale pricing for branded drugs as reported by drugs.com), the total potential market for AD04 would be approximately $36 billion in the United States alone.
Beyond the United States, alcohol consumption worldwide is a serious health issue. The 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health published by the World Health Organization (the “WHO”) states that 5.9% of all deaths (about 3.3 million per year) and 5.1% of disease worldwide are attributable to alcohol consumption. Europe consumes over 25% of the total alcohol consumed worldwide despite only having 14.7% of the world’s population. The WHO estimates that about 55 million people in Europe have AUD and, within Europe, Eastern Europe has a particularly acute problem with Russia estimated to have about 21 million people with AUD. The WHO further estimates that 17.4% of adult Russians and 31% of adult Russian males have AUD, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development data indicates that 30% of all deaths in Russia are alcohol related as reported by Quartz Media.
Companion Genetic Bio-Marker Aimed at Identifying Patients Most Likely to Respond To Treatment, Potentially Results in Increased Use of AD04
We believe our drug is unique in that it is designed to reduce heavy drinking in individuals with certain genotypes. We are pursuing a strategy that aims to integrate pre-treatment screening with the companion diagnostic genetic test into the drug label, essentially combining the test and treatment into one integrated therapeutic offering that has combined intellectual property protections. This companion diagnostic testing approach may be a useful genetic screening tool to predict those most likely to respond to the drug and to have minimal side effects. Based on the clinical experience to date and publicly available databases, we believe the genetic prevalence of genotype positive people is about 33% of the population in the United States and that the prevalence in Scandinavia and in certain areas of Central and Eastern Europe may be greater than 50%. The FDA has agreed that the Phase 3 trials of AD04 can proceed only enrolling patients that are genotype positive, which greatly reduces, the cost, time and risk relative to a trial that also enrolled patients that are genotype negative for treatment with AD04. Our plan to conduct our first Phase 3 trial in geographic areas with expected higher prevalence of genotype positive patients should further reduce the cost, time and risk to achieve Phase 3 results. The FDA has indicated that any approval based on a trial only in genotype positive patients would result in labeling restricted to treating genotype positive patients.
We believe that the companion diagnostic genetic test enables physicians to more easily have an initial conversation with their patients about alcohol use and, for the patient, provides a less threatening and obtrusive first step toward treatment because the conversation will include the topic of genetic testing and not be solely about behavior. Patients that then test positive against the AD04 genetic panel would be expected to be more likely to then receive a prescription for AD04 (based on an external quantitative market study of 156 primary care physicians and psychiatrists that was conducted by Ipsos-Insight LLC, who we commissioned, and that concluded a majority of genetically targeted patients currently receiving pharmacologic treatment would be switched to a drug with the characteristics expected for AD04).
Prior Work of Universities and our Ability to Leverage Relationships Creates Cost Efficiencies
We have a worldwide, exclusive license to intellectual property developed at the University of Virginia by a member of our board of directors, Dr. Bankole A. Johnson, who was Chairman of the Department of Psychiatry & Neurobehavioral Sciences at the University of Virginia (and prior to that the Chief of the Division of Alcohol and Drug Addiction at the University of Texas) and is now Chair, Department of Psychiatry and Director of the Brain Science Research Consortium Unit at the University of Maryland. Dr. Johnson has spent almost three decades researching the underlying subject matter. Significant portions of the supporting research were also funded under grants from the National Institute of Health to the University of Virginia and the University of Texas.
By leveraging the prior work of universities and their researchers, including their pre-clinical studies and accumulated data, we believe we have developed a significant drug development opportunity. Because of the licensing approach taken to secure intellectual property, including, without limitation, patents and rights to clinical trial data, and our collaborations with the University of Virginia, we have not had to incur the significant costs that would normally be required to develop therapeutic treatments to the point of being ready to commence a Phase 3 clinical trial, which often amount to tens of millions of dollars or more. In fact, based upon current information, and depending on what the regulatory authorities may require to secure marketing authorization, we estimate that we will require approximately $7.5 million for the initial Phase 3 clinical trial (not including company overhead) and an additional $30 million of additional capital to complete our second Phase 3 program (which includes $20 million for a confirmatory Phase 3 trial and any necessary Phase 1 clinical trials and other development expenses and does not include the additional cost of a possible third Phase 3 clinical trial) as currently contemplated in order to achieve regulatory approval for the use of AD04 to treat AUD in the United States and Europe. We intend to use approximately $3.0 million of the proceeds from our initial public offering consummated in July 2018 and subsequent warrant exercises to fund a portion of the initial Phase 3 clinical trial, leaving $4.5 million needed to from future financings to complete our initial Phase 3 clinical trial.
The NIAAA has provided and continues to provide technical assistance and advice to us, and we intend to apply for an NIAAA Research Resource Award, which if granted would provide financial support for our Phase 3 clinical trial. Although there can be no assurance that we will be selected by the NIAAA to receive funding, since we are not aware of any pharmaceutical company planning Phase 3 pivotal trials to serve as a basis for marketing approval for products for the treatment of AUD, we believe AD04 would be a competitive candidate.