RISK FACTORS
We are subject to numerous known and unknown risks, many of which are presented below and elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. You should carefully consider each of the following risks and all of the other information contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K in evaluating us and our common stock. Any of the risk factors described below, or additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us, or that we currently deem immaterial, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. The headings provided in this Item 1A are for convenience and reference purposes only and shall not limit or otherwise affect the extent or interpretation of the risk factors.
Risks Relating to Our Industries
Our refining margins have been volatile and are likely to remain volatile, which may have a material adverse effect on our earnings and cash flows.
Our earnings, cash flow and profitability from our refining operations are substantially determined by the difference between the market price of refined products and the market price of crude oil, which is referred to as the crack spread, refining margin or refined products margin. Refining margins historically have been volatile, and are likely to continue to be volatile, as a result of numerous factors beyond our control, including volatility in the prices of the various types of crude oil and other feedstocks purchased by our refineries, volatility in the costs of natural gas and electricity used by our refineries, and volatility in the prices of gasoline and other refined petroleum products sold by our refineries. Although we monitor our refinery operating margins and seek to optimize results by adjusting throughput volumes, throughput types and product slates, there are inherent limitations on our ability to offset the effects of adverse market conditions.
For example, although there are differences between published prices and margins and those realized in our operations, certain published data illustrate the volatility we encounter. The NYMEX price for domestic light sweet crude oil (NYMEX: CL), the Argus price for WTI Midland crude oil, the Gulf Coast price for unleaded gasoline (Platts Gulf Coast CBOB), the Gulf Coast price for high sulfur diesel (Platts Gulf Coast Pipeline High Sulfur No. 2 Diesel), the Gulf Coast 5-3-2 crack spread and the differential between the price of NYMEX crude oil and Intercontinental Exchange ("ICE") Brent Crude Oil (ICE: B) have fluctuated between the following daily highs and lows during the preceding three calendar years:
Year Ended
December 31, 2017
December 31, 2016
December 31, 2015
Low
High
Low
High
NYMEX crude oil (per barrel)
$
42.37
60.42
$
26.21
54.06
34.73
61.43
WTI — Midland crude oil (per barrel)
41.56
61.03
26.45
54.77
35.17
61.23
Gulf Coast CBOB (per gallon)
1.31
2.03
0.75
1.65
1.07
2.01
Gulf Coast High Sulfur Diesel (per gallon)
1.18
1.86
0.74
1.53
0.82
1.84
Gulf Coast crack spread (per barrel)
7.67
30.44
4.38
14.16
3.46
23.55
WTI — Cushing/Brent crude oil differential (per barrel)
2.45
6.60
1.67
2.76
1.38
6.34
Such volatility is affected by, among other things:
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The crude oil we purchase, and the refined products we sell, are commodities whose prices are mainly determined by market forces beyond our control. While an increase or decrease in the price of crude oil will often result in a corresponding increase or decrease in the wholesale price of refined products, a change in the price of one commodity does not always result in a corresponding change in the other. A substantial or prolonged increase in crude oil prices without a corresponding increase in refined product prices, or a substantial or prolonged decrease in refined product prices without a corresponding decrease in crude oil prices, could also have a significant negative effect on our results of operations and cash flows. This is especially true for non-transportation refined products, such as asphalt, butane, coke, sulfur, propane and slurry, whose prices are less likely to correlate to fluctuations in the price of crude oil, all of which we produce at our refineries.
Also, the price for a significant portion of the crude oil processed at our refineries is based upon the WTI benchmark for such oil rather than the Brent benchmark. While the prices for WTI and Brent historically correlate to one another, elevated supply of WTI-priced crude oil in the Mid-Continent region has caused WTI prices to fall significantly below Brent prices at different points in time in recent years. During the years ended December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2017, this daily differential ranged from highs of $2.76 and $6.60, respectively, to lows of $1.67 and $2.45, respectively. Our ability to purchase and process favorably priced crude oils has allowed us to achieve higher net income and cash flow in recent years; however, we cannot assure that these favorable conditions will continue. A substantial or prolonged narrowing in (or inversion to) the price differential between the WTI and Brent benchmarks for any reason, including, without limitation, increased crude oil distribution capacity from the Permian Basin, crude oil exports from the United States or actual or perceived reductions in Mid-Continent crude oil inventories, could negatively impact our earnings and cash flows. In addition, because the premium or discount we pay for a portion of the crude oil processed at our refineries is established based upon this differential during the month prior to the month in which the crude oil is processed, rapid decreases in the differential may negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows.
We operate in a highly regulated industry and increased costs of compliance with, or liability for violation of, existing or future laws, regulations and other requirements could significantly increase our costs of doing business, thereby adversely affecting our profitability.
Our industry is subject to extensive laws, regulations, permits and other requirements including, but not limited to, those relating to the environment, fuel composition, safety, transportation, pipeline tariffs, employment, labor, immigration, minimum wages, overtime pay, health care benefits, working conditions, public accessibility, retail fuel pricing, the sale of alcohol and tobacco and other requirements. These permits, laws and regulations are enforced by federal agencies including the EPA, United States Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Federal Railroad Administration, OSHA, National Labor Relations Board, Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Federal Trade Commission and FERC, and numerous other state and federal agencies. We anticipate that compliance with environmental, health and safety regulations could require us to spend significant amounts in capital costs during the next five years. These estimates do not include amounts related to capital investments that management has deemed to be strategic investments. These amounts could materially change as a result of governmental and regulatory actions.
Various permits, licenses, registrations and other authorizations are required under these laws for the operation of our refineries, terminals, pipelines, retail locations and related operations, and these permits are subject to renewal and modification that may require operational changes involving significant costs. If key permits cannot be renewed or are revoked, the ability to continue operation of the affected facilities could be threatened.
Ongoing compliance with, or violation of, laws, regulations and other requirements could also have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We face potential exposure to future claims and lawsuits involving environmental matters, including, but not limited to, soil, groundwater and waterway contamination, air pollution, personal injury and property damage allegedly caused by substances we manufactured, handled, used, released or disposed. We are, and have been, the subject of various state, federal and private proceedings relating to environmental regulations, conditions and inquiries.
In addition, new legal requirements, new interpretations of existing legal requirements, increased legislative activity and governmental enforcement and other developments could require us to make additional unforeseen expenditures. Companies in the petroleum industry, such as us, are often the target of activist and regulatory activity regarding pricing, safety, environmental compliance, derivatives trading and other business practices, which could result in price controls, fines, increased taxes or other actions affecting the conduct of our business. For example, consumer activists are lobbying various authorities to enact laws and regulations mandating the removal of tetra-ethyl lead from aviation gasoline. Other activists seek to require reductions in GHG emissions from our refineries and fuel products, and are increasingly protesting new energy infrastructure projects, such as pipelines and crude by rail facilities. The specific impact of laws and regulations or other actions may vary depending