RISK FACTORS
Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. You should carefully consider the following factors, as well as other information contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, in evaluating our Company and business. If any of the following risks occur, our business, results of operations, and financial condition may be materially adversely affected.
Risks Relating to Our Business and Industry
At any given point in time, general economic conditions may have an adverse impact on the industry sectors in which our trade shows and conferences operate, and therefore may negatively affect demand for exhibition space and attendance at our trade shows and conferences.
Our results are influenced by domestic as well as global general economic conditions because we draw exhibitors and attendees from around the world. However, we are affected to a larger degree by conditions within the individual industry sectors in which our trade shows operate. For example, the downturn in the domestic housing market that began in 2007 had a negative impact on the performance of KBIS during the period from 2008 to 2013. The longer a recession or economic downturn continues, the more likely it becomes that our customers may reduce their marketing and advertising or procurement budgets. Any material decrease in marketing or procurement budgets could reduce the demand for exhibition space or reduce attendance at our trade shows, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
The success of each of our trade shows depends on the reputation of that show’s brand.
Our exhibitors and attendees primarily know us by the names of our trade shows that operate in their specific industry sector rather than by our corporate brand name, Emerald Expositions. In addition, a single brand name is sometimes used for shows that occur more than once a year; for example, the brand name “ASD Market Week” is used at our ASD Market Week March and ASD Market Week August shows, and the brand name Outdoor Retailer is used for both the OR Summer Market and OR Winter Market versions of the show. If the image or reputation of one or more of these shows is tarnished, it could impact the number of exhibitors and attendees attending that show or shows. A decline in one of our larger shows could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
The dates and location of a trade show can impact its profitability and prospects.
The demand for desirable dates and locations is high. Consistent with industry practice, we typically maintain multi-year non-binding reservations for dates at our trade show venues. Aside from a nominal deposit in some cases, we do not pay for these reservations, and, while they almost always entitle us to a last look before the venue is rented to someone else during the reservation period, these reservations are not binding on the facility owners until we execute a definitive contract with the owner. We typically sign contracts that guarantee the right to specific dates at venues only one or two years in advance. Therefore, our multi-year reservations may not lead to binding contracts with facility owners. Consistency in location and all other aspects of our trade shows is important to maintaining a high retention rate from year to year, and we rely on our highly loyal customer base for the success of our shows. Moving major shows to new cities, such as the planned move of Interbike from Las Vegas, Nevada to Reno, Nevada in September 2018 and the move of OR from Salt Lake City, Utah to Denver, Colorado in January 2018, can adversely affect customer behavior. Similarly, significant timing changes, such as the acceleration of OR Winter Market from January 2019 to November 2018, can also result in unanticipated customer reactions. External factors such as legislation and government policies at the local or state level, including policy related to social issues, may depress the desire of exhibitors and attendees to attend our trade shows held in certain locations. For example, our organic revenue growth in 2017 was modestly adversely impacted by certain political issues in Utah that affected exhibitor participation at our 2017 OR Summer Market show. Our inability to secure or retain desirable dates and locations for our trade shows could have a material effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
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Attendance at our shows could decline as a result of disruptions in global or local travel conditions, such as congestion at airports, the risk of or an actual terrorist action, adverse weather or fear of communicable diseases.
The number of attendees and exhibitors at our trade shows may be affected by a variety of factors that are outside our control. Because many attendees and exhibitors travel to our trade shows via airplane, factors that depress the ability or desire of attendees and exhibitors to travel to our trade shows, including, but not limited to, an increased frequency of flight delays or accidents, outbreaks of contagious disease or the potential for infection, increased costs associated with air travel, actual or threatened terrorist attacks, the imposition of heightened security standards or bans on visitors from particular countries outside the United States, or acts of nature, such as earthquakes, storms and other natural disasters, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations. For example, during the third quarter of 2017, we experienced disruptions to ISS Orlando, Surf Expo and ICFF South Florida as a result of the impact of Hurricane Irma, and we may be forced to cancel or re-locate future trade shows in the event of natural or man-made disasters. While we are generally insured against direct losses, one or more of the factors described above could cause a long-term reduction in the willingness of exhibitors and attendees to travel to attend our trade shows, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
We may fail to accurately monitor or respond to changing market trends and adapt our trade show portfolio accordingly.
Our success depends in part upon our ability to monitor changing market trends and to adapt our trade shows, acquire existing trade shows or launch new trade shows to meet the evolving needs of existing and emerging target audiences. The process of researching, developing, launching and establishing profitability for a new trade show may lead to initial operating losses. In 2017, we launched six new events. Our efforts to adapt our trade shows, or to introduce new trade shows into our portfolio, in response to our perception of changing market trends, may not succeed, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
If we fail to attract leading brands as exhibitors in, or high-quality attendees to, our trade shows, we may lose the benefit of the self-reinforcing “network effect” we enjoy today.
The leading brands represented by our exhibitors attract attendees who, in many cases, have authority to make purchasing decisions, or who offer other benefits (such as publicity or press coverage) by virtue of their attendance. The presence of these exhibitors and attendees creates the self-reinforcing “network effect” that benefits our business; however, if representatives of leading brands decide for any reason not to participate in our trade shows, the number and quality of attendees could decline, which could lead to a rapid decline in the results of one or more trade shows and have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
We may face increased competition from existing trade show operators or new competitors.
Although the trade show market is highly fragmented, we currently face competition in certain of our industry sectors. Further, our high profit margins and low start-up costs could encourage new operators to enter the trade show business. Both existing and new competitors present an alternative to our product offerings, and if competition increases or others are successful in attracting away our exhibitors and attendees, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
A significant portion of our revenue is generated by our top five trade shows.
We depend on our top five trade shows to generate a significant portion of our revenues. For the year ended December 31, 2017, our top five shows were ASD Market Week March, ASD Market Week August, NY NOW Summer, NY NOW Winter and KBIS. For the year ended December 31, 2017, these shows represented 33% of our total revenues. Notwithstanding the fact that ASD Market Week and NY NOW represent multiple product categories and that all of our shows are highly diversified by customer, a significant decline in the performance or prospects of any one of these significant trade shows could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
We intend to continue to be highly acquisitive, and our acquisition growth strategy entails risk.
Our acquisition growth strategy entails various risks, including, among others:
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the risks inherent in identifying desirable acquisition candidates, including management time spent away from running our core business and external costs associated with identifying such acquisition candidates; |
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the risk that we turn out to be wrong with respect to selecting and consummating what we had believed to be accretive acquisitions; |
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the risk of overpaying for a particular acquisition; |
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the risks of successfully integrating an acquisition and retaining the key employees and/or customers of acquired businesses; |
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the risks relating to potential unknown liabilities of acquired businesses; |
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the cultural, execution, currency, tax and other risks associated with any future international expansion; and |
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the risks associated with financing an acquisition, which may involve diluting our existing stockholders, reducing our liquidity or incurring additional debt, which in turn could result in increased debt service costs and/or a requirement to comply with certain financial or other covenants. |
In furtherance of our strategy of growth through acquisitions, we routinely review and conduct investigations of potential acquisitions, some of which may be material. When we believe a favorable opportunity exists, we seek to enter into discussions with target shows or sellers regarding the possibility of such acquisitions. At any given time, we may be in discussions with one or more counterparties. There can be no assurances that any such negotiations will lead to definitive agreements, or if such agreements are reached, that any transactions would be consummated.
Our exhibitors may choose to use an increasing portion of their marketing and advertising budgets to fund online initiatives or otherwise reduce the amount of money they have available to spend in connection with our trade shows.
Our trade shows have high NSF renewal rates, and we expect to continue to derive the substantial majority of our revenues from selling booth space to exhibitors. Although we have not observed a decline in demand for our trade shows as a result of the increasing use of the internet and social media for advertising and marketing, the increasing influence of online marketing and any resulting reductions of the budgets our participants allocate to our trade shows could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
We may lose the services of members of our senior management team or of certain of our key full time employees and we may not be able to replace them adequately.
We benefit substantially from the leadership and experience of members of our senior management team and we depend on their continued services to successfully implement our business strategy. The loss of any member of our senior management team or other key employee could materially and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. We currently maintain key man insurance only for our CEO. We cannot be certain that we will continue to retain our executives’ services, or the services of other key personnel, many of whom have significant industry experience and/or institutional knowledge. Moreover, we may not be able to attract and retain other qualified personnel. The loss of the services of senior management or other key full-time employees, or our inability to attract and retain other qualified personnel, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
We use third-party agents whom we do not control to sell space at our trade shows, particularly to international exhibitors.
We supplement our sales employees with third-party agents, who often have deeper connections in international markets than we could have on our own. We do not have full control over these agents, and they have the potential to expose us to reputational and legal risks either through representing our company poorly, selling exhibition space at our trade shows to low quality or otherwise inappropriate exhibitors or violating certain laws or
regulations including the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other applicable anti-bribery laws in contravention of our policies and procedures. Our relationships with these agents are not always exclusive, and any of a number of factors could lead to a reduction or cessation of their efforts to sell exhibit space at our trade shows, potentially reducing participation at our trade shows and having a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
Changes in legislation, regulation and government policy, including as a result of U.S. presidential and congressional elections, may have a material adverse effect on our business in the future.
The presidential and congressional elections in the United States could result in significant changes in, and uncertainty with respect to, legislation, regulation and government policy. While it is not possible to predict whether and when any such changes will occur, changes at the local, state or federal level could significantly impact our business. Specific legislative and regulatory proposals discussed during and after the election that could have a material impact on us include, but are not limited to, infrastructure renewal programs; changes to immigration policy; modifications to international trade policy, including withdrawing from trade agreements; and changes to financial legislation and public company reporting requirements. In particular, changes to immigration policy could make it more difficult for some exhibitors and attendees to attend our events.
We are currently unable to predict whether policy change discussions will meaningfully change existing legislative and regulatory environments relevant for our business. To the extent that such changes have a negative impact on us, including as a result of related uncertainty, these changes may materially and adversely impact our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
Recently enacted changes to the U.S. tax laws may have a material impact on us.
On December 20, 2017, the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate each voted to approve H.R. 1 (commonly referred to as the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act”) and, on December 22, 2017, the President signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act makes extensive changes to the U.S. tax laws and includes provisions that, among other things, reduce the U.S. corporate income tax rate, introduce a capital investment deduction, limit the interest deduction, limit the use of net operating losses to offset future taxable income, and make extensive changes to the U.S. international tax system, including the taxation of foreign earnings of U.S. multinational corporations. In addition, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act modifies the deductibility of certain executive officer compensation, which may limit our ability to deduct performance-based compensation, including compensation related to the exercise of options by certain executive officers. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is complex and far-reaching and we cannot predict with certainty the resulting impact its enactment will have on us.
A loss or disruption of the services from one or more of the limited number of outside contractors who specialize in decoration, facility set-up and other services in connection with our trade shows could harm our business.
We, and to a greater extent, our exhibitors, use a limited number of outside contractors for decoration, facility set-up and other services in connection with our trade shows, and we and our exhibitors rely on the availability, capability and willingness of these contractors to provide services on a timely basis and on favorable economic and other terms. Notwithstanding our long-term contracts with these contractors, many factors outside our control could harm these relationships and the availability, capability or willingness of these contractors to provide these services on acceptable terms. The partial or complete loss of these contractors, or a significant adverse change in our or our exhibitors’ relationships with any of these contractors, could result in service delays, reputational damage and/or added costs that could harm our business and customer relationships to the extent we or our exhibitors are unable to replace them in a timely or cost-effective fashion, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
Some facilities where we hold our trade shows require decorators, facility set-up and other service providers to use unionized labor. Any union strikes or work stoppages could result in delays in launching or running our trade shows, reputational damage and/or added costs, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
The industry associations that sponsor and market our trade shows could cease to do so effectively, or could be replaced or supplemented by new industry associations who do not sponsor or market our trade shows.
We often enter into long-term sponsorship agreements with industry associations whereby the industry association endorses and markets our trade show to its members, typically in exchange for a percentage of the trade show’s revenue. Our success depends, in part, on our continued relationships with these industry associations and our ability to enter into similar relationships with other industry associations. Although we frequently enter into long-term agreements with these counterparties, these relationships remain subject to various risks, including, among others:
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failure of an industry trade association to renew a sponsorship agreement upon its expiration; |
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termination of a sponsorship agreement by an industry trade association in specified circumstances; |
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the willingness, ability and effectiveness of an industry trade association to market our trade shows to its members; |
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dissolution of an industry trade association and/or the failure of a new industry trade association to support us; and |
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the ability on the part of an industry trade association to organize a trade show itself. |
Any disruptions or impediments in these existing relationships, or the inability to establish a new relationship, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
Our launch of new trade shows or new initiatives with respect to current trade shows may be unsuccessful and consume significant management and financial resources.
From time to time, we launch new trade shows or new initiatives with respect to current trade shows. In 2017, we launched six new events. We may expend significant management time and start-up expenses during the development and launch of new trade shows or initiatives, and if such trade shows or initiatives are not successful or fall short of expectations, we may be adversely affected. Because we have limited resources, we must effectively manage and properly allocate and prioritize our efforts. There can be no assurance that we will be successful or, even if successful, that any resulting new trade shows or new initiatives with respect to current trade shows will achieve customer acceptance.
We do not own certain of the trade shows that we operate or certain trademarks associated with some of our shows.
Risks associated with our relationships with industry trade associations or other third-party sponsors of our events are particularly applicable in the cases of KBIS and CEDIA, which are trade shows owned by industry associations, and in the case of the JA New York trade shows and our Military trade shows, which are the trade shows in our portfolio where the show trademarks are owned by an industry association or other third party and not by us. Any material disruption to our relationship with these third parties could have a material adverse impact on the revenue stream from these trade shows.