Last updated: September 11, 2026
Bulgaria’s economic activity continues to experience shifts, with the output gap moving across various trajectories from 2020: -5.12 to 2027: 0.05, spending much of the mid-period in positive territory—such as 2022: 1.48, 2025: 1.12, and 2026: 0.7—before nearing equilibrium by 2027: 0.05. This implies the economy has alternated between periods of spare capacity and slight overheating, settling closer to its potential over time. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate moved within a tight band, starting at December 2025: 3.1 and reaching July 2026: 3.6 after dipping to January 2026: 3.0.
Price pressures have been notable, highlighted by CPI inflation which stood at December 2025: 4.95, dipping to February 2026: 3.32 before accelerating to a peak in April 2026: 6.8 and May 2026: 6.85, and subsequently moderating to July 2026: 4.55. Policy rate data from the Bulgarian National Bank is not available.
On the fiscal front, government revenue fluctuated between Q1 2024: 7.97 billion and Q4 2025: 13.44 billion units of national currency, while government expenditure ranged from Q1 2024: 8.87 billion to Q4 2025: 15.51 billion units of national currency. The government budget balance (net lending/borrowing % of GDP, representing the narrower public sector measure) spanned from Q2 2024: -2.31% to Q1 2026: -4.63%. Simultaneously, the broader measure of total financial liabilities of the general government tracked from Q2 2024: 31.27% of GDP to Q1 2026: 37.81% of GDP, reflecting different measurement perimeters.
No sector balance data is available for Bulgaria.
In foreign trade, goods exports to the world moved from 2020: 31,200.61 million to 2025: 45,290.71 million units of national currency, with a high of 2022: 47,954.64 million. Goods imports from the world expanded from 2020: 34,822.68 million to 2025: 59,696.86 million units of national currency, consistently resulting in a trade deficit across the reported years.
Energy vulnerability involves multiple moving components. Net electricity imports remained negative throughout the 2017 to 2024 period—ranging from 2017: -5.48 billion kWh to 2022: -12.2 billion kWh and registering 2024: -0.99 billion kWh—indicating that Bulgaria is a structural net exporter of electricity, making this dynamic immaterial as a vulnerability relative to the broader economy. Meanwhile, the Brent crude oil price moved from December 2025: $61.81 per barrel to a peak in May 2026: $103.84 per barrel before easing to July 2026: $83.73 per barrel, serving as a general input cost. Furthermore, dry natural gas imports stood at 2017: 115.44 billion cubic feet, moving to 2024: 95.25 billion cubic feet, while the EU natural gas price moved from December 2025: $9.46 to July 2026: $17.93, underlining gas import dependence and rising fuel costs as specific inflation and energy-security risks.
No currency value data against the IMF Special Drawing Right basket is available.
Overall, Bulgaria navigates fluctuating output gaps and shifting inflation prints alongside persistent trade deficits. Fiscal metrics show expanding budget shortfalls and liabilities, while external energy and commodity costs present ongoing management challenges for the economy.
This bulletin is generated with AI assistance from the structured economic data collected across this site (national accounts, sector accounts, trade, energy and currency data). It is intended as an accessible summary, not investment advice — figures may be revised as underlying data sources are updated. For the detailed underlying series, see the Nation Account Data and Economic Data sections in the menu above.